Through this series, I hope to keep the Dkos community informed in a single location on what the numbers and experts say about the state of the midterms. At the same time, it’s important to keep perspective. Polls are going to be off; pundits are going to make mistakes in viewing the political environment.
We’re at that point in the cycle where pollsters are focusing more and more on ‘likely voter’ (LV) estimates of candidate support. For a useful critique of this approach, see Kerry Eleveld’s diary here. Likely voter screens are adjustments made on the pollster’s beliefs about who is likely to vote. This is not just guesswork; there is rich data from previous election cycles relevant to this question. However, every cycle is unique, and may experience factors that seriously upset the LV models. In 2018, midterm turnout leaped far above expectations as Democrats and independents reacted against the policies and scandals of the Trump administration. Now, we have threats to women’s reproductive rights (the Dobbs decision) and by extension to personal privacy rights more broadly, plus the threat of MAGA candidates to democracy itself. These factors work in the Democrats’ favor, but the GOP is hitting back hard on the inflation issue, which has a readily visible and immediate impact on everyone’s daily life. And of course, they are trying the usual culture wars tactic of terrifying their voters with the latest right-wing bogeymen — this time around, with CRT and trans athletes leading the charge. One real and measurable change is that women are far outpacing men in new voter registrations in many states across the U.S. It seems likely that a lot of these women are Democratic-leaning, motivated by abortion and reproductive rights — but as new voters, they will probably be underweighted in likely voter models. Nathan Gonzales at Inside Elections has a useful analysis of why 2022 could turn out to be another record-setting year for midterm turnout. In general, my rule of thumb is that for a variety of reasons, polls today tend to overestimate Democratic support by several percentage points.
As for the pundits, they too will have a hard time in forecasting how major historical events — such as the Dobbs decision — can impact an election. To give you as broad a picture as possible, and help you reach your own conclusions about the state of the midterms, I pull from a wide variety of sources. These include sites that provide polling averages; sites that use current polling and other data to predict vote outcomes; and political pundit sites. Below are brief descriptions and the links that can take you right to the sources.
FiveThirtyEight: Senate ratings and House forecast. Provides estimates of election-day vote based on both a polling average and a “deluxe” model that includes historical trends and expert ratings. (538)
Electoral-vote: Provides a simple last-week polling average for Senate races. (E-V)
RealClearPolitics: Another polling average, but broader than Electoral-Vote’s. (RCP)
270towin: Yet another polling average and algorithm. (270)
Cook Political Report: Expert ratings of each race (solid, likely, lean, or tossup). (Cook)
Sabato's Crystal Ball: Also expert ratings (safe, likely, lean, or tossup). (Sabato)
Inside Elections: Yet more expert ratings (solid, likely, lean, tilt, or tossup). (Inside)
This week’s numbers and ratings were current as of Saturday 10/15.
Senate Races
|
E-V |
RCP |
270 (polls) |
538 (polls) |
538 (deluxe) |
Sabato |
Cook |
Inside |
Az |
D +8 |
D +4.5 |
D +6.4 |
D 51.9-46.1
|
D 51.6-46.4 |
lean D |
lean D |
tilt D |
FL |
R +7 |
R +4.7 |
R +4.8 |
R 51.3-46.5 |
R 52.4-45.4 |
likely R |
lean R |
likely R |
GA |
D +4 |
D +3.3 |
D +3.2 |
D 51.3-47.1 |
D 50.3-48.1 |
tossup |
tossup |
tossup |
IA |
R +3 |
R +7 |
R +9.4 |
R 55.6-44.4 |
R 59.1-40.9 |
safe R |
solid R |
solid R |
NV |
tie |
R +1.7 |
R +1.7 |
R 48.7-48.4 |
D 48.6-48.5 |
tossup |
tossup |
tossup |
NH |
D +7 |
D +8.0 |
D +6.4 |
D 52.9-45.2 |
D 52.4-45.7 |
lean D |
lean D |
tilt D |
NC |
R +1 |
R +1.5 |
R +0.6 |
R 49.4-48.4 |
R 50.6-47.3 |
lean R |
lean R |
tilt R |
OH |
R +1 |
R +0.7 |
D +0.2 |
R 50.1-49.9 |
R 51.8-48.2 |
lean R |
lean R |
lean R |
PA |
D +4 |
D +3.4 |
D +3.4 |
D 51.6-46.2 |
D 50.6-47.1 |
lean D |
tossup |
tossup |
WI |
R +3 |
R +2.8 |
R +3.6 |
R 51.1-48.9 |
R 51.6-48.4 |
lean R |
tossup |
tilt R |
Senate overview: There are no clear shifts here, as any fluctuations across sites are within the margin of error. Kelly’s +8 poll in AZ will need to be repeated in further polling before there’s evidence of new momentum in his direction. In response to the poll for last week’s diary, I added IA. Everyone is convinced this is sold for the GOP, except that single poll with Franken only 3 points down. It’s a Selzer poll, the gold standard for IA, but like the Kelly poll, there will need to be additional similar results before we can feel confident Franken is closing the gap with Grassley (the 538 deluxe model still indicates a near 20-pt Grassley win). For now, Warnock in GA and Fetterman in PA consistently maintain leads in their races, although Cook joined Inside Elections in moving this race back to a tossup. NV remains the most vulnerable seat for Democrats (and the margin is very similar in the NV governor’s race, so D’s really need to play a strong defense here). However, the ongoing narrow margins in the NC and OH races continue to suggest those seats are strong possibilities for D pickups.
The general stability over the past week continues to support forecasts of almost no change in the Senate balance of power. 538 has the Democrats with a 65-35 chance of keeping control, but likely with 50 or 51 seats, with a pickup in PA offset with a possible loss in NV. Right now Senate control looks like it’s going down to the wire.
House overview: House ratings barely shifted, leaving the GOP favored to win control. Although there’s a lot of variability in what forecasters see as tossups, the Democrats would have to win almost all tossup seats to keep control.
RCP: R 220, D 180, T 35
270: R 216, D 206, T 13
538: R 215, D 207, T 13
Sabato: R 214, D 195, T 26
Cook: R 211, D 193, T 31
Inside Elections: R 211, D 205, T 19
Gubernatorial races
|
RCP |
270 |
538 (polls) |
538 (deluxe) |
sabato |
cook |
inside |
AZ |
R +0.9 |
R +0.4 |
R 50.2-49.8 |
R 50.3-49.7 |
tossup |
tossup |
tossup |
FL |
R +7.8 |
R +8.3 |
R 52.5-45.3 |
R 53.7-44.1 |
likely R |
likely R |
likely R |
GA |
R +5.0 |
R +6.0 |
R 52.0-46.6 |
R 52.4-46.2 |
lean R |
lean R |
tilt R |
KS |
D +2.0 |
NA |
D 50.9-45.8 |
D 49.6-47.1 |
tossup |
tossup |
tossup |
NV |
R +1.8 |
R +1.8 |
R 48.8-48.2 |
D 48.9-48.1 |
tossup |
tossup |
tossup |
OR |
R +3.0 |
R +2.5 |
R 40.4-39.1 |
R 39.8-39.6 |
tossup |
tossup |
tossup |
PA |
D +10.3 |
D +11.0 |
D 54.4-43.6 |
D 54.2-43.9 |
likely D |
likely D |
lean D |
TX |
R +8.5 |
R +6.8 |
R 52.3-45.5 |
R 54.3-43.5 |
likely R |
likely R |
solid R |
WI |
tie |
R +0.6 |
D 49.6-48.8 |
D 49.9-48.5 |
tossup |
tossup |
tossup |
Gubernatorial Overview: Very little change here either. D-held governorships in KS, OR, NV, and WI are in need of defense. Kotek in OR appears in most danger of losing, mainly because of the ex-Democrat independent spoiler candidate, but NV is at nearly as much risk. AZ remains way too close, considering GOP candidate Lake is a lunatic election denier pledged to end democracy there. I suggest the most urgent needs for support right now are OR and NV, with AZ for offense to pick up a seat.
With just over 3 weeks to go, there’s little time to alter the dynamics of the races covered here, but the outcome will likely depend on which way the undecideds break and the new voter turnout. My opinion is that Democrats need a strong closing argument about reproductive freedom, women’s and privacy rights more broadly, and the GOP threat to Democracy. Which is not to say that D candidates aren’t doing this — but it needs to be loud and constant.